One year ago, Iran took a gamble and started a war in Gaza with the attack by Hamas that killed nearly 1,200 Israelis, including over 40 Americans, and took more than 200 hostages
A year later, it is clear that Iran is losing this war.
For his part, Ayatollah Khamenei on Friday, October 4, 2024, remembered the massacre as ‘logical and legal’ and used his first public Friday sermon in five years to proclaim that Iran ‘won’t back down.’ He also had a rifle at the podium. He’s that worried.
You can measure the defeat of Iran in two ways. The first is restoring Israel’s security and carrying out the military destruction of Iran’s terror agents Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and more.
Israeli strikes of the past several weeks have brought this goal closer.
Second, getting Israel and Saudi Arabia back on track toward normalizing relations will be the ultimate defeat for Iran.
Of all the vile causes for the Hamas attack, the strategic tipping point came because Saudi Arabia and Israel were close to a historic normalization of relations.
Iran couldn’t stand it.
Last fall, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman were in serious, quiet negotiations. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote in his Foreign Affairs article that the work toward joint infrastructure projects and new partnerships between Israel and its Arab neighbors was ‘bearing fruit.’
‘Every day we get closer,’ bin Salman said in an interview aired Sep. 20, 2023.
‘We can forge a historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia,’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said to President Joe Biden during a televised meeting in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly sessions that same day.
The impending deal included a significant Palestinian component of concessions by Israel. ‘It is not a done deal and there are many variables, but the odds are more than 50%,’ a senior Israeli official told Axios at the time.
Diplomacy was bubbling along, with Netanyahu invited to Washington, D.C., at the end of the year.
You can imagine how that went over in Tehran.
Less than two weeks later, Iran gave ‘the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut’ on Monday, Oct. 2, 2023, sending word to Hamas and Hezbollah, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The objective was to force Israel into a war to blacken its reputation and scorch any path to peace.
To do it, Iran coached Hamas to change tactics.
Just three years earlier, in May 2021, Hamas waged an all-out missile war with huge salvoes to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses, to no avail. Even with the incredibly brief warning times characteristic of short-range launches, Israel’s multi-layered defensive system held. Of course, the Israeli Air Force hit weapons caches and launch sites. Egypt stepped in to broker the ceasefire.
This time, the kind of war sought by Iran would have to go beyond missile attacks.
Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began specific planning with Hamas for the attack in August 2023. The goal was ‘the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War,’ the Journal reported Oct. 8, 2023.
And so it was. Note Iran was content to let the civilians of Gaza pay a terrible price being caught of the middle of a war zone.
Most of the Hamas military structure in Gaza was destroyed by the spring of 2024. Biden offered a ceasefire on May 30. Hamas toyed with agreement, but this time there would be no ceasefire despite strenuous efforts by Egypt and Qatar. Iran wasn’t ready.
Enter Hezbollah. A surge in rocket attacks across the alleged UN ‘blue line’ effectively saw Hezbollah take the lead in fighting. Now, Israel would have to contend with Hezbollah, too. The war entered a new phase with the July 30 killing of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas Politburo, in Tehran itself.
Israel’s systematic campaign has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership, culminating with the pager attacks and the death of Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s strikes in Lebanon are now attempting to restore border safety.
A year after the initial attack, Iran is the loser by any military standard. Two big missile attacks on Israel have been thwarted. The military advantage rests with Israel. However, I suspect more strikes on legitimate military and infrastructure targets to reduce Iran’s power may be required.
Despite Israel’s military successes, dangers remain. For a year, the American military has done everything President Joe Biden asked in the name of deterrence. This includes steps that made sense: U.S. Navy destroyers intercepting Iran’s missiles, aircraft carriers and F-22s deployed with strike options. And measures that didn’t, such as the Gaza aid pier. The bottom line is 40,000 U.S. forces deployed to the U.S. Central Command region, all to keep a lid on Iran. That can’t go on forever (although China would like it).
The path ahead depends on restoring Israel’s security and taking out Iran’s capabilities. After that, the goal is to get back to the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a goal shared by the Trump and Biden administrations. It’s not easy – the two-state dilemma remains. But it is the one sure way to defeat Iran, for good.
Of all the vile causes for the Hamas attack, the strategic tipping point came because Saudi Arabia and Israel were close to a historic normalization of relations.
And it’s important for Americans to stay committed to Israel’s security and to the diplomatic goals, despite the pain caused by the shock unleashing of antisemitism. Too many 21st Century Americans turned out to be biased, ignorant, susceptible to foreign instigation, or all of the above. We Americans have to do better than this.
Don’t forget that in the words of the Justice Department’s Indictment of Hamas, the government of Iran’s regional and global campaign of terrorism aims to ‘weaken and ultimately destroy both the United States and Israel.’
America’s best interest remains to support Israel – and take all military steps necessary to get back to the regional diplomacy that will shut down Iran for good.