France Election 2024: Major Upsets and Key Players in the First Round
People from all over the world are monitoring the French elections. There are many inquiries about “France election 2024” and “France election results 2024.”
What Went Wrong For President Emmanuel Macron And His Party?
Several years ago, it was hard to imagine that the far-right National Rally would be able to attract so many voters.
For the first time in its history, the National Rally has emerged victorious, as it topped the legislative polls in France. The party nearly doubled its results.
Unsurprisingly, people inside and outside the country were shocked by the results of the “France election 2024.”
Based on the information provided by the French Interior Ministry, the National Rally outperformed its rivals.
The party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, garnered more than 33% of the votes. The party’s result was about three percentage points below last week’s opinion poll predictions. Nevertheless, it was still enough to make the National Rally the winner.
The outcome is a huge step forward for the National Rally, which struggled to secure enough votes to compete with mainstream parties.
National Rally And Its Path To Success
Was it a mistake to call for elections? Probably, yes. However, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, didn’t expect his party to find itself behind the National Rally and the New Popular Front.
The New Popular Front was created to defeat the far-right and unites center-left, greens, and far-left.
Interestingly, the newly created coalition secured second place with almost 28%.
The New Popular Front consists of the Socialist Party, the Greens, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed.
What About Macron’s Centrist Alliance?
Macron’s alliance was unable to compete with its main rivals. Only about 21% of voters voted for the centrist alliance.
The National Rally, which was previously known as the National Front, has come out on top in the first round of voting, nearly doubling its support since the last National Assembly elections in 2022.
However, the situation is more complicated than it may appear at first glance. It is quite hard to control the lower chamber. Le Pen’s party needs 289 seats in the lower chamber to gain control of the lower house of parliament.
We also need to note that the National Assembly is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. In total, there are 577 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Based on the information provided by Ipsos, the National Rally and its allies from the Republicans party may secure between 230 and 280 seats.
France Election Results 2024
How Did We Get Here?
The snap election, called by President Macron following his poor performance in the EU elections on June 9, has failed to reverse his fortunes.
His Ensemble coalition secured less than 21% of the vote, which is lower than where he stood at the equivalent stage of the previous elections.
Nevertheless, it is an improvement compared to his performance in the recent European vote. Back then, only 14.6% of voters voted for his party.
As stated earlier, the New Popular Front garnered 28% of the vote.
This is a slight improvement over the 25.7% that the equivalent coalition, NUPES, achieved in the 2022 elections.
The current results suggest that the country’s president could only secure less than 100 seats. In comparison, the New Popular Front could secure between 125 and 165 seats, with the left-wing bloc being dominated by Mélenchon’s party, based on the information provided by Ipsos.
Macron wasn’t the only person who failed to strengthen his position.
Eric Zemmour, who is the leader of the Reconquest party, suffered serious losses. His party only managed to secure less than 1%.
Many people who like right-wing parties decided to support the National Rally.
It is noteworthy that only 6.6% of voters voted for the Republicans party. The situation inside the party is quite tense, as not everyone wants to join forces with the National Rally.
Nevertheless, when combined with other more moderate right-wing factions, they reached 10.4%.
What’s Next?
The next several days will decide the fate of the “France election 2024.”
It is hard to predict how candidates will tackle ongoing issues. Nevertheless, there is a chance to defeat the National Rally. To achieve this goal, parties need to work together.
Two years ago, President Emmanuel Macron secured over 25% of the votes in the first round. Nonetheless, he ended up with 42% of the seats. His party outperformed its rivals. However, Macron’s party could not stay in charge of the lower house.
Mélenchon made an important announcement; he promised to withdraw his candidates from any constituency where they came in third.
The National Rally secured more than 31% of the vote in the European Parliament elections and will send 30 members of its party to Brussels. Macron and his party weren’t so lucky.
This significant gain has boosted Le Pen’s profile and cemented her position as a leading force in French politics.
Nevertheless, the legislative elections are crucial for determining the balance of power in France. The final results, which will only be clear after the second round, will dictate the future political landscape of the country. If the National Rally secures a significant number of seats but falls short of a majority, it could lead to a fragmented parliament where coalition-building becomes essential.
At the same time, Macron’s ability to push through his policy agenda will depend heavily on the composition of the new National Assembly. A strong showing by the left-wing New Popular Front could also pose challenges for both Macron and Le Pen, as it suggests a significant portion of the electorate is leaning towards progressive policies.
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