Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, said that if President Biden is still ‘struggling’ by the end of the summer, he should consider dropping out of the presidential race.
‘If Biden is still struggling in August he needs to consider stepping aside,’ the polling guru wrote Thursday on X. ‘It’s not a great situation for Ds either way, but you have to do due diligence on the question. It’s an important election, obviously. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about.’
Recent polls have shown former President Trump leading in several key swing states as Biden continues to get low favorability ratings.
But a new poll this week shows the race deadlocked nationally.
The Democratic president stands at 48% among registered voters, with his Republican predecessor in the White House at 47%, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday. Biden’s one-point edge over Trump is well within the poll’s margin of error.
In a likely five-candidate showdown, Biden stands at 41%, Trump scores 38% and Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. grabs 14% support, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent progressive candidate Cornel West each at 2%.
‘Call them fair weather, call them unsure. A sizable block of registered voters is still juggling candidates, with Kennedy voters particularly swayable and Trump voters less inclined to bail on their candidate,’ Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Mally highlighted.
A Fox News survey earlier this month showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden (a one-point lead) in a tightened race as an uptick in economic optimism pushed approval of Biden up.
Silver later added on X, ‘*If* Biden is still trailing Trump by >=3 points in the swing states in August—not something I take for granted—then he’ll be a pretty big underdog. It would be bananas not to consider alternatives. Sometimes all you get choose from is different types of bananas.’
He added that if the first debate goes ‘*really* badly’ for Biden and he’s polling five to six points behind Trump in swing states, ‘That’s a nearly unsalvageable position. You’d have to pull the emergency lever.’
The two candidates have agreed to two TV debates in June and September ahead of the election on Nov. 5.
FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Biden would win in 2020, but incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016.