Former President Donald Trump is embarking this week on a high-stakes tour of the Persian Gulf region, targeting business deals and strategic partnerships with three oil-rich nations: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
The trip marks Trump’s first major foreign visit of his new term and comes as nuclear negotiations with Iran drag on and as war continues between Israel and the Palestinian terror organization, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip. While business is the official focus, the backdrop is anything but calm.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described the mission as part of Trump’s broader vision that ‘extremism is defeated [through] commerce and cultural exchanges.’
Under President Joe Biden, U.S. relations with Gulf states cooled, particularly after Biden vowed to make Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a ‘pariah’ over the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But Trump has reversed course, embracing a more transactional approach that has warmed ties with regional leaders.
‘The overall goal here is that the United States is reminding our Middle East allies that we’re here to stay,’ said Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum. ‘We’re here to promote our joint interests rather than the abandonment policies under the previous administration.’
Big money, big expectations
Saudi Arabia has already pledged $600 billion in U.S. investments, spanning weapons purchases, technology transfers, artificial intelligence and the stock market. Trump has said he believes the Saudis may ultimately commit up to $1 trillion.
While Saudi leaders aim to diversify their economy away from oil, those massive investments still depend on oil revenues, which could be threatened by Trump’s push to lower global energy prices.
In addition to economic deals, Trump and bin Salman are expected to discuss a possible civil nuclear program and expanded defense cooperation. Such agreements were once linked to a potential Abraham Accords-style normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
But Riyadh has made clear it won’t recognize Israel unless Palestinian statehood is on the table, something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has staunchly opposed. No stop in Israel is scheduled during Trump’s tour.
‘Israeli normalization in any Saudi-U.S. project is an outdated option,’ said Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari. ‘The second Trump administration is doubling down on its strategically autonomous Middle East policy.’
In a possible goodwill gesture ahead of the trip, Hamas released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, a move Trump called ‘monumental’ in the push to end the Gaza conflict.
And as the UAE seeks to boost its ties with the U.S. and become a global AI leader by 2030, it’ll need American microchips. The UAE has gone even further than the Saudis, promising $1.4 trillion in U.S. investments over the next decade focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing and energy.
Biden had tightened curbs on AI exports to keep such technologies out of the hands of adversaries at a time when China drew closer to Middle Eastern states, especially the UAE.
On Thursday, the U.S. announced Trump would rescind the Biden-era restrictions.
Itinerary: Three days, three power centers
Trump’s whirlwind Gulf visit begins Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he’ll headline the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum alongside Saudi ministers, White House crypto czar David Sacks and other business leaders.
On Wednesday, he’ll attend a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting before flying to Qatar for talks with Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and a visit to the U.S. military’s Al Udeid Air Base.
Thursday’s final stop is Abu Dhabi, where Trump will meet UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The Qataris are pulling out all the stops to impress: They’ve offered Trump the use of a royal Boeing 747-8, typically reserved for the Qatari royal family, to serve as Air Force One.
Since being named a major non-NATO ally by Biden in 2022, Qatar has deepened its ties with the U.S., hosting American troops and mediating sensitive negotiations, including ongoing back-channel talks between Israel and Gaza.
Doha also maintains close contact with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who ousted Bashar al-Assad and is now seeking sanctions relief and normalized ties with the West.
‘Regional leaders will have an opportunity to address the situation directly with the president,’ said regional expert Jonathan Bass. ‘Trump is the only man that can lead the way.’
Iran watching closely
While a fourth round of Iran nuclear talks in Oman over the weekend failed to produce a breakthrough, Tehran is expected to keep a close eye on Trump’s Gulf meetings.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made unannounced visits to both Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead of Trump’s arrival, likely in hopes of passing messages through those governments to Washington.
But all three of Trump’s host nations, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, remain wary of Iran’s ambitions.
‘The region needs to openly address the problem of the IRGC,’ said Bass, referring to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. ‘The IRGC is trying to undermine every single country in the region.’