One of the indicators that Carl Swenlin developed is the Silver Cross Index. It is one of the best participation indicators out there! Here’s how it works:
We consider a positive 20/50-day EMA crossover a “Silver Cross”. If a stock has a Silver Cross it has a bullish bias. The opposite of a Silver Cross is a Dark Cross. Stocks with a Dark Cross have a bearish bias.
The Silver Cross Index measures the percentage of stocks holding Silver Crosses. The current percentage on the Silver Cross Index is just 37% so this tells us that 63% have bearish biases. This condition suggests to us that the market has more downside to absorb.
The Silver Cross Index was nearing a Bullish Shift across its signal line, but instead has topped. It is likely to continue declining given less stocks are above their 20/50-day EMAs versus the Silver Cross Index percentage.
Participation measured by the percent of stocks above their key moving averages are all below our bullish 50% threshold. Stochastics have topped and the PMO topped Friday. The short-term rising trend has been broken. This looks like a textbook reverse flag formation that was confirmed with Friday’s decline. The minimum downside target of the pattern would put price near 480. This sure has the earmarks of a failed bear market rally.
Conclusion: The Silver Cross Index is at a very low 37% and has now topped beneath its signal line. Participation, as measured by the %Stocks > 20/50EMAs, is mediocre at best and reading below the Silver Cross Index. This looks like the end of a bear market rally based on the bear flag that was confirmed on Friday.
(Note: This chart is from our “Under the Hood” ChartList on DecisionPoint.com. We have these charts with the Silver Cross Index for all the major indexes, sectors and select industry groups. All subscriptions include access to these charts!)
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