Expect a traffic jam in the Senate soon as the race is on to confirm President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees.
In short, nothing can happen until President-elect Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Yes, there will be plenty of Trump loyalists attending various inaugural balls around town.
But once the inauguration festivities conclude at the Capitol, the Senate will get down to business. A handful of committees are already angling to schedule ‘markups’ to potentially discharge or send various nominations to the floor. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has already teed up a meeting for 3:15 pm et on January 20 for the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be Secretary of State. And if the custom holds, the Senate will confirm at least a few of Mr. Trump’s nominees just hours after he takes the oath of office.
Let history be our guide:
The Senate confirmed Trump’s Defense Secretary James Mattis and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly on the evening of January 20, 2017. The next confirmation didn’t come until January 31, 2017. That was Elaine Chao, wife of former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), to be Transportation Secretary.
In 2021, the Senate confirmed one of President Biden’s nominees shortly after he was sworn-in. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines was the first Biden nominee confirmed – on the night of January 20, 2021. The first, full cabinet-level vote did not come until January 22, when the Senate confirmed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
So, while everyone is trying to squeeze into their tux on Monday night, look for the Senate to potentially vote on a nominee or two on the evening of January 20th.
Fox is told that the most likely candidates might include Rubio – since he is a known quantity in the Senate and has bipartisan support. Another possibility would be CIA Director nominee John Ratcliffe. The Senate previously confirmed Ratcliffe as the Director of National Intelligence during the first Trump Administration. He is also a known entity in the halls of Congress and served as a Republican congressman from Texas. His hearing is on for tomorrow.
Frankly, the ambitious timetable of approving several of the nominees quickly could be challenging.
The Senate Energy Committee had to postpone Tuesday’s confirmation hearing for Interior Secretary Doug Burgum from Tuesday until Thursday due to delays over paperwork. Veterans Affairs Secretary nominee Doug Collins is not controversial. He is a former GOP congressman from Georgia. But his confirmation hearing for Tuesday was pushed back until next week. Collins may have been one figure who could have been confirmed quickly.
Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi is also one who could secure relatively speedy confirmation. Her hearing is Wednesday and Thursday. So maybe next week for her? Unclear.
But let’s examine the track record of the Senate confirming President Biden’s nominees and place it against expectations for the new Trump Administration.
After Lloyd Austin, the Senate confirmed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on January 25, 2021, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 26. Most cabinet officials weren’t confirmed until February or March. The Senate did not confirm Interior Secretary Deb Haaland until March 15, 2021, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra until March 18, 2021, and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh until March 22, 2021.
You get the idea.
Every nominee must go through a hearing. Committees have different rules about how they discharge a nomination to the floor. So that could consume some time as well. Some nominees could be bottled up in committee, depending on opposition or attendance problems. Then there may be debate on the floor.
If Democrats filibuster a nominee, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) may need to tee up a procedural gambit to break filibusters. The process of just initiating a procedural vote to break a filibuster consumes parts of three days alone. If a nominee’s opponents still don’t relent, it’s possible that senators could drag out debate on a nominee for day or two – even though the Senate has broken a filibuster.
In February 2017, Mike Pence became the first Vice President to break a tie to confirm a cabinet official. He did so to confirm former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.
In other words, floor time is at a premium. There are various parliamentary ‘meridians’ for when the Senate can take certain procedural votes to advance a nominee. That’s why the Senate took a procedural vote at 7 am on the DeVos nomination in February 2017. The Senate also confirmed then Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price around 2 am one morning.
And we haven’t even gotten to other nominations which are important to the Administration – such as Pete Hoekstra to be Ambassador to Canada or Mike Huckabee to serve as Ambassador to Israel. There are more than 800 positions which require Senate confirmation.
To accelerate things, the Senate could confirm some swaths of non-controversial nominees ‘en bloc.’ That means the Senate clears the nominees on both sides to make sure there are no objections. If there are none, the Senate compiles a list and confirms a group of nominees together in one fell swoop.
But this is a long and tedious process. Confirming various positions in the Trump administration is going to take months. It consumes hours of floor time. That’s the most precious commodity in the Senate. Keep in mind that the push to confirm Trump nominees comes as the Senate is trying to work out a time agreement and amendments to pass the Laken Riley Act and a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court over its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
This is a monster process. And it will likely consume some early mornings, very late nights and even some weekend sessions before this is settled.